Lotteries and injuries have shaped the Philadelphia 76ers for over a decade. The team’s ping pong balls brought them Joel Embiid, but injuries have often kept him off the court. Ben Simmons joined the team on a lucky lottery night but has struggled with back problems that never fully healed. A shoulder injury to Markelle Fultz might have stopped a potential dynasty before it even started. The list of setbacks continues.
Now, the situation has taken another turn. Paul George, the star free agent expected to help launch the Embiid era into the NBA Finals, will miss the remainder of the regular season. Once again, the 76ers find themselves hoping for good luck in the lottery.
However, this might not be the worst scenario for them, at least when we look at history.
In 2023, I took a closer look at how fortunate each team has been throughout lottery history. While luck in the lottery can feel subjective—like winning when Tim Duncan is available, which is worth much more than a usual top pick—objectively, no team has been as lucky as the 76ers. As of 2023, they have gained 24 net draft positions through the lottery, more than any other team. They’ve moved up relative to their record eight times and only dropped down once. This is a franchise that should be ready to trust their future to the basketball gods.
The pressure has never been greater for the 76ers than it is right now. Many would say that few teams have relied so heavily on a single lottery as the 76ers do for this May’s drawing. Currently, Philadelphia holds the sixth-worst record in the NBA. If their pick ends up being lower than seventh, it will go to the Oklahoma City Thunder.
Philadelphia faces a tough situation: either it secures a high draft pick in a strong draft class or ends up with nothing.
The team is burdened by the contracts of Joel Embiid and Paul George. This isn’t the first time a team has found itself in such a predicament. A notable instance occurred in 2003 when the Grizzlies owed a protected top pick to Detroit, which ended up being the second overall. During the lottery, Jerry West had to wait and see if he would land LeBron James or walk away empty-handed. However, the 2003 Grizzlies had a brighter outlook than the 2025 Sixers, as they had two Rookie of the Year winners from 2000 and 2001 and weren’t stuck with two of the worst contracts in the league.
Currently, George and Embiid are in a tough spot. Together, they played only 60 games this season while earning over $100 million. George has three more years left on his contract after this season, and Embiid, who is sidelined for the year due to a knee issue, has four years remaining. With Tyrese Maxey’s max contract also in the mix, Philadelphia’s salary cap is already tight for the near future. Re-signing important free agents like Quentin Grimes and Guerschon Yabusele could push the Sixers into a difficult financial situation. It’s hard to envision anyone wanting to trade for George or Embiid without taking on similarly problematic contracts. The 76ers really need dependable talent that is also affordable.
This is where the lottery pick becomes important. First-round rookies have their salaries set for four years, which matches the length of Embiid’s contract. The 76ers have already found a great rookie whose contract fits well with George’s. They’ll have Jared McCain for just over $12 million in total for the next three years, giving them some extra value they need to manage the George deal. However, even though McCain shows a lot of promise, he was still picked 16th overall and has some significant weaknesses along with an injury to keep an eye on.
A top-six draft pick in this strong class is definitely Philadelphia’s best option for navigating their salary cap issues. Think about it: while paying Embiid $243 million over the next four years might not seem appealing, spending $300 million for both Embiid and Cooper Flagg combined is easier to accept.
Flagg probably won’t be worth a maximum salary until close to the end of his contract, but Embiid still holds some value in terms of salary. If Philadelphia limits his playing time and avoids back-to-back games, they could still get some good performance out of him during his remaining prime years. Whether it’s Flagg, Dylan Harper, Ace Bailey, or another top prospect, these six promising players could outperform their rookie contracts, making it possible for the team to compete even with two expensive max contracts.
Now, let’s say that Embiid and George are truly not part of the solution. Even then, a young core of Maxey, McCain, Grimes, and a top-six pick is still quite promising. Although building around them without much salary cap flexibility would be tough, if that pick turns out to be great and they make a few smart moves, the idea that Philadelphia could create a new winning team around this group isn’t out of the question.
Lottery results are very important for the 76ers. There’s a tough truth that fans of the 76ers might not want to face. If the team doesn’t keep this pick and it goes to Oklahoma City, what does that mean for Maxey’s future?
How many 24-year-old stars want to spend their early prime years on teams struggling because of a few bad contracts? How long will it take for him to feel uneasy about his future and look for different long-term options? Remember, Maxey waited a year to sign his big deal to help Philadelphia make room for George. He made a sacrifice, and now it’s up to the 76ers to reward him for it. If they don’t, another team will.
Most teams that don’t succeed in the lottery can wait another year to try again. For Philadelphia, it really might be a make-or-break situation. Even though things look bad now, they are likely to be a little better next season. Imagine if the Sixers get 100 combined games from Embiid and George next year instead of just 60. If Maxey stays healthier at the end of the season and the team improves a bit, Philadelphia might still disappoint, but in a more frustrating way. That’s the trap of being stuck in mediocrity.
Even though Philadelphia has picked in the middle of the first round, they shouldn’t expect to find a hero with the No. 18 pick. If they don’t add some strong talent soon, this team might only make it to the Play-In and the first round of the playoffs for the next few years. This year is a great chance for them. Things have gone so badly that they might just turn around for the better. They might not have another opportunity like this again.
It makes sense in a way. The current period of basketball in Philadelphia began with Sam Hinkie fully accepting the lottery more than any other general manager before him. This time might come to a disappointing end in May with the lottery, or it could continue if they get lucky. Their problems are mainly due to injuries, which is one of the reasons Hinkie lost his job originally.
It’s a mess, but it’s the kind of mess the 76ers have been dealing with since The Process started.