With the largest field in 22 years and an uncertain weather prediction, Saturday’s Betfred Derby at Epsom is an exciting rerun that will be difficult to predict. It’s not surprising that the market is having trouble selecting a clear favorite because the forecasted rain during the night and on race day itself has increased the likelihood of a more substantial cut in the ground than was anticipated for the major event. Although he is a player and it wouldn’t surprise me if The Lion in Winter lost his Dante form to Colin Keane, Pride of Arras, his York rival, may well be deserving of the top spot following such a strong victory the second time around.
Lambourn and Stanhope Gardens are intriguing enough, but they’ve both gotten closer to the price range I’d be willing to pay. I like those two above Delacroix and Ruling Court because I have more doubts about both of them in relation to the trip. Raphael Freire’s TUSCAN HILLS, which is registering four spots at 50/1, is appealing. In fact, since we are looking at a big-field Derby in what appears to be wet weather, I believe that a little each-way wager at a high price is the way to go. In recent years, Amo Racing has made waves with the expensive horses Mojo Star (50/1) and King Of Steel (66/1) who both finished nicely in second place. They also have another intriguing outsider here, especially with the rain in mind.
In the race at Pontefract, where Westover lost before he ran so brilliantly in the Derby, the son of Night of Thunder sailed through soft ground on his way to a decisive Listed victory, bringing his juvenile record to two from two in October. The slow gallop worked against Tuscan Hills, who finished a four-length seventh in the aforementioned Dante Stakes at York, where he finished behind Pride Of Arras. Despite this, he ran well for his first start in seven months. He still has work to do to change that form, of course, but I thought his move to go from ninth to disputed the lead three furlongs away was good, and it wouldn’t be a surprise if he made a significant step forward from that now he tackles easier ground.
There are doubts about whether he will continue the journey, but there is hope that he will be alright over the mile and a half to Epsom because his grandfather, Eswarah, won the Oaks and his dam, Sea the Stars. The Aston Martin “Dash” Handicap will be fierce earlier, and I’m curious to see if the erratic FAIR WIND will benefit from this special race. Though he picks his Epsom targets carefully, Owen Burrows is four from ten here, and Fair Wind performs best when traveling in well-run five-furlong races, as he demonstrated at Goodwood and Ascot the previous season. In fact, he defeated Dream Composer, the later “Dash” winner, at Goodwood, and his capacity to handle a downhill sprint track was very much in evidence there, while he won’t mind the rain either.
After that, it was not surprising that Burrows sent him back to Sussex for the Glorious meeting. He was sent off as the 7/2 favorite, but his refusal to race clearly worries backers. His return run at Chester, which I believe was an exercise to get him through the stalls on race day again, was, hopefully, a one-time occurrence. His wide draw meant that he was dropped out and did not receive a difficult time in the rear. It appears that Burrows believes he is prepared to compete in this race at this time, and given his skill, I believe he is worth taking on at double-figure odds despite all the hazards. On Oaks Day, Andrew Balding won the first game with Formal and he might just repeat the trick on Derby day with another filly in BERMUDA LONGTAIL who goes for the Group 3 Princess Elizabeth Stakes.
After only four career races, Hello Youmzain’s daughter is not heavily contested. She attracted attention during her turf debut at York last time out when she lost by a tight margin to Kon Tiki in the Listed Sky Bet Fillies’ Stakes. I believe it took a lot of work on the part of Bermuda Longtail to run Jane Chapple-Hyam’s Knavesmire winner, who is undefeated in three and may be headed for greater things, down to half a length with a good finishing effort. Since she is taking on her elders for the first time and is marginally up in class and travel, this race seems like the logical next step for her. She appears to be in an excellent position to receive the Arabian Queen and Epsom Icon weight-for-age allowance of 12 pounds
two 3yo fillies who took advantage of the concession in this race, while others like Nazuna and Chic Columbine went close in recent years.
With a strong pace looking likely she could come with another strong late run under Oisin Murphy to land the day’s opening prize.
