Looking at the betting markets, the competition for the 2024-25 NBA MVP seems pretty one-sided. Shai Gilgeous-Alexander from the Thunder is a strong favorite at -850 in several sportsbooks. Meanwhile, Nikola Jokić from the Nuggets, who has won MVP three times, is considered a long shot with odds around 4-to-1 or 5-to-1.
However, it seems much closer than those numbers suggest. CBS Sports’ Bill Reiter highlights just how tight the race is. Two weeks ago, I finally decided to place Gilgeous-Alexander at the top of my MVP list instead of Jokić. But then, when my editor asked for an internal CBS Sports MVP poll over the weekend, I switched back to Jokić.
After taking some time to think it over in the last few days, I’ve returned to support SGA. The odds might suggest he will win easily, but it feels like this race is going to be incredibly close. It feels correct to support both players, and it almost feels wrong not to give each of them a vote.
I’m an SGA fan right now, and that’s where I’m going to stay. Just to clarify, this ranking shows who I believe should win the MVP, not necessarily who I think will win it. The same goes for those finishing in spots 2 to 5.
For most of the season, my rankings didn’t match those two ideas. I supported Jokić as the rightful winner for as long as possible, even though I thought SGA would ultimately take the prize. Now, I see things the same way on both sides. I think SGA deserves to win, and I believe he will win.
Now, let’s look at the MVP rankings as we head into the games on Wednesday, March 19.
1. Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, Thunder
In March, Gilgeous-Alexander has played eight games and is averaging 37.6 points and seven assists while shooting an impressive 54% from the field, 40% from three-point range, and 95% from the free-throw line. These stats are incredible, even for him. He has scored at least 40 points in four of those games, including a high of 51 points in one. He even went to Boston and defeated the Celtics without Jalen Williams. He just keeps on dominating.
SGA leads the league in the number of games with 50, 40, 30, and 20 points, totaling an unbelievable 63 consecutive games. He is also scoring at an average of 33.0 points per game. Additionally, he ranks second in total steals, which shows his strong defensive skills. His impressive plus-719 individual point differential is the best in the league and nearly 350 points higher than the next best player on the Thunder.
Yes, SGA has more support than Jokić, but this isn’t like Cleveland where a different player shines every night. This is SGA’s team, and the plus-minus number really shows that.
By the way, the Thunder are set to easily surpass 60 wins and will be the top seed in the Western Conference. At some point, we have to recognize that while Jokić has been fantastic, Gilgeous-Alexander truly deserves the MVP award, and I believe the final vote will prove that.
Want to hear more about the NBA MVP race? Bill Reiter and John Gonzalez went into detail about SGA versus Jokić on Wednesday’s Beyond the Arc podcast.
2. Nikola Jokić, Nuggets
In fifty years, a kid might be browsing the latest version of Basketball-Reference on Mars and discover that a player who ranked third in scoring, second in assists, third in rebounding, and fourth in steals per game didn’t win the MVP award. They might think we were crazy for that.
Maybe we are.
It really does seem a bit crazy that Jokić could miss out on the MVP title, even though he is having the best season of a career that has already earned him three MVPs. Being in the top four for all those categories is unbelievable. By the end of the season, Jokić will be only the second player in history, alongside Oscar Robertson, to average at least 29 points, 12 rebounds, and 10 assists. Robertson shot 48% during his season, while Jokić is shooting 57%, including 41% from beyond the arc on over four attempts per game.
One of the strongest arguments for Jokić as MVP is how the Nuggets perform without him. According to Cleaning the Glass, the team suffers a drop of almost 21 points per 100 possessions when he is off the court. While the Thunder would still have a chance at the play-in tournament without SGA, the Nuggets would likely end up in the lottery and possibly be one of the six or seven worst teams in the league without Jokić. Yet, here they are, tied for the No. 2 seed in the Western Conference.
Even so, SGA, along with OKC, has been outstanding, and it feels like his moment has come. Voter fatigue is a real thing; if it weren’t, Michael Jordan would have won the MVP every year. Jokić is clearly the best player in the world, but he is likely to come in second for MVP, just like he did a few years ago when it was Joel Embiid’s turn. This time, I’m more accepting of that outcome.
3. Giannis Antetokounmpo, Bucks
Giannis might not reach the 65-game mark needed for MVP consideration, but he should make it unless he suffers a short injury in the next three weeks (he needs to play in nine of Milwaukee’s last 14 games).
Giannis isn’t expected to win the MVP, just like every other player on this list who isn’t SGA or Jokić. It’s really about where he finishes. His slight edge over Jayson Tatum is very narrow and can be viewed in different ways.
However, if he does play 65 games, I would place Giannis as the overlooked third-place finisher. He would be the only player in NBA history—not just this year—who averages at least 30 points, 12 rebounds, six assists, and one block while playing for a team that, similar to Jokić and Denver, would struggle at the bottom of the standings without him.
4. Jayson Tatum, Celtics
With Boston’s team being so strong overall and Tatum’s shooting efficiency being just okay, some people might overlook him as an MVP candidate. However, he is clearly the top player for Boston and has truly grown into a star in all parts of the game.
Tatum ranks as the sixth-highest scorer in the league, averaging over 27 points per game. He is one of only three players, along with Jokic and Luka Doncic, who are averaging at least 25 points, eight rebounds, five assists, and one steal this season. His 5.9 assists mark a career high, and his rebounding numbers are impressive as well.
Since the All-Star break, Tatum has been averaging nine rebounds and seven assists each game. He is really versatile, and even with such a talented Celtics team, Tatum is the player who gets the most defensive focus.
5. LeBron James, Lakers
Before LeBron got injured, the Lakers had a strong run, winning eight out of nine games. However, once he was sidelined, they quickly lost three in a row. While some believe that adding Luka Dončić has turned the Lakers into serious contenders, the reality is that LeBron has kept this team performing much better than anyone expected all season long.
It’s impressive to see that the Lakers, who many, including myself, thought would end up with only around 30 wins, are now tied for the second seed in terms of losses with less than a month left in the season. This shows just how much influence LeBron still has.
Forget about age: LeBron is the only player in the league, besides Jokić, who is scoring at least 25 points, getting eight assists, and grabbing eight rebounds while shooting over 50%. He’s been playing great defense as well. Even if he were 100 years old, it wouldn’t change the fact that he’s still one of the top players in the league.
The fifth spot for MVP is up for grabs. Two weeks ago, I picked Cade Cunningham for this spot, and I wouldn’t argue if you believe Cunningham deserves more recognition than LeBron; what he’s doing with the Pistons this season is impressive. There’s also Donovan Mitchell and Anthony Edwards; Stephen Curry could be considered too, especially since he has been on a scoring spree after Jimmy Butler helped him out.
But for me, it’s LeBron (who needs to come back from injury and play seven more games to meet the 65-game requirement). The Lakers were expected to be a play-in team, yet they are competing for a top-two seed. Even with Dončić, the team lost three consecutive games right after LeBron went down. He truly deserves a spot in the top five this season.
