As the NASCAR Cup Series heads to Las Vegas Motor Speedway to kick off the Round of 8, the stakes couldn’t be higher — and the news heading into Sin City brings both optimism and concern for several playoff contenders.
The bright lights of Las Vegas will set the stage for a crucial weekend where one driver can punch their ticket to the Championship 4, while others could see their title hopes fade. Here’s a look at the good and bad news facing some of NASCAR’s top competitors as the next round begins.
Good News: Momentum and Track History Favor a Few
Kyle Larson enters Vegas with the hot hand after a strong performance at the Charlotte ROVAL, where he showcased the poise of a champion. The 2021 Cup Series champion has a win at Las Vegas (2021) and has consistently run well on 1.5-mile tracks — making him one of the early favorites to advance.
Denny Hamlin also carries confidence to the desert. Despite recent playoff turbulence, Hamlin’s track record at Vegas speaks volumes — including a victory in 2021 and multiple top-five finishes. His 23XI-affiliated Toyota teams have also shown improved speed, giving him a solid foundation to fight for a Championship 4 berth.
William Byron rounds out the “good news” group. The Hendrick Motorsports driver has shown remarkable consistency all season long and already has multiple wins on intermediate tracks. His Vegas performance earlier this year — where he finished in the top five — positions him well to start the Round of 8 on a strong note.
Bad News: Pressure Mounts and Performance Wavers
For Chris Buescher, the Round of 8 brings uncharted territory. While the RFK Racing driver has impressed throughout the playoffs, his recent finishes have shown a drop in speed compared to the powerhouse teams. Las Vegas, historically not one of his best tracks, will test whether RFK can keep pace with the likes of Hendrick, Joe Gibbs, and Team Penske.
Martin Truex Jr. faces perhaps the toughest challenge of all. After a disastrous Round of 12 that saw poor finishes and zero momentum, the regular-season champion finds himself needing to reset fast. Vegas has been hit-or-miss for Truex in recent years — with a win in 2019 but struggles since. He’ll need a major rebound to keep his title hopes alive.
Meanwhile, Tyler Reddick and Ryan Blaney both enter with questions surrounding consistency. Reddick’s high-risk, high-reward driving style could pay off at Vegas, but it also leaves him vulnerable if the race turns chaotic. For Blaney, a solid performance is essential after uneven results through the first two playoff rounds.
The Bottom Line
Las Vegas represents opportunity — but also danger. A win here guarantees a trip to Phoenix for the Championship 4, while a bad day could spell the end of a championship dream.
With eight drivers still in the hunt and every lap under the neon lights mattering more than ever, the Round of 8 opener is shaping up to be one of the most pivotal races of the 2025 NASCAR season.
When the checkered flag waves on Sunday, the playoff picture could look dramatically different — and for some, the gamble of Las Vegas may just pay off big.
