Our senior form analyst, Jamie Lynch, takes a deep dive into the final flat contest of 2024 on Town Moor this Saturday—the November Handicap, live on Sky Sports Racing.
We’ll analyze the large field by categorizing the runners, which will naturally lead to a shortlist.
Of course, I’ll ultimately commit to one selection, but the real insight lies in the breakdown. So, let’s dive into those categories…
THE THREE-YEAR-OLDS
Only two three-year-olds have won the November Handicap in the past 15 years, but the trio of contenders this time are notably strong in terms of profile and progress.
VALVANO stands out, with limited runs but impressive form, coming from this season’s top stable.
Though still seeking a win since his 2-year-old campaign, he’s been beaten by horses like Notable Speech (now rated 122), Military Academy (set to be at least 110), and Bolster (rated 112).
However, his tendency to be keen due to immaturity could be a drawback over this longer distance on challenging ground.
In contrast, the more demanding the conditions, the better for the relentless MINSTREL KNIGHT, who has been raised a total of 13lb after dominating small fields over 1¾ miles in the mud twice recently.
It’s worth noting that at York, he was more than double the price of MASTER BUILDER, and with good reason, as the track and pace played against the latter.
Under these conditions, Master Builder may well turn the tables, given his prior progress and strong 3-year-old form lines.
THE ELDER RISERS
A surprise star this season, THREE DONS was a maiden in his first 30 races but has transformed since May, now up 35lb with seven wins to his name, six under Molly Gunn.
However, it’s hard to see him scaling this higher level from the bottom of the weights.
Another who has transformed this season is MILLER SPIRIT, securing his fifth handicap win of the year at Newbury in a manner suggesting there’s more to come.
He and FLASH BARDOT finished some eight lengths ahead, with the latter receiving a relatively lenient 3lb rise compared to Miller Spirit’s 7lb.
INSANITY appears tailor-made for this race, and Alan King seems to agree, having given him a break after a subpar run at York, likely due to a quick turnaround.
The only horse to beat him in three starts this season was Mount Atlas, who nearly won the Old Rowley Cup last month.
Insanity is a strong contender for the shortlist, especially with Rossa Ryan aboard.
Ryan rode LORD MELBOURNE last time when the distance was too short, and he’s likely still being refined by Beckett, who has had him for only a few races, winning twice with amateurs.
Now, the talented Jack Doughty effectively re-calibrates his mark to just 85, which is advantageous.
STRESS FREE
finished ahead of Lord Melbourne at Leicester and Valvano at York before his unlucky third at Doncaster on Futurity day with Jamie Spencer, a jockey skilled at managing stamina as Stressfree tries 1½ miles for the first time.
WAXING GIBBOUS was the favourite for the Autumn Cup at Newbury but managed only fifth (with CHILLINGHAM in second and KOTARI in fourth).
It’s possible she hadn’t fully recovered from her big effort in the Old Borough Cup, where she was a neck second to Epic Poet.
Having had a longer break ahead of this, her ninth race, and with champion apprentice Sean Dylan Bowen in the saddle, she could bounce back.
THE SLEEPERS
There are fewer “sleepers” than usual for a race like this, i.e., those handicapped to win if they regain form.
WISE EAGLE has the past form to be competitive but carries top weight, while ADJUVANT benefits from a claiming rider this time around.
It’s worth noting he was only 10-1 for last year’s Ebor. BEAMISH is 8lb lower than when he started with Archie Watson and has shown glimpses of his old Irish form, though over longer distances, so this shorter trip may be challenging.
THE MUD LOVERS
Conditions might not be as boggy as some past editions of the November Handicap, but it will still be testing, which is a positive for MAXI KING, who thrives in the mud, and TWO BROTHERS, who needs soft ground to be competitive, especially now that he’s back up to a mark that has previously been a barrier for him.
An off-roader who could still have more to give is AULD TOON LOON, who won by a wide margin on heavy ground at Bath on his debut for his current yard.
However, the handicapper was not lenient, raising him by 10lb, and all his wins have come in small fields.
JAMIE LYNCH’S VERDICT
This year’s November Handicap is everything you’d expect—high in both quality and quantity.
The three-year-olds are hotter than usual, with Valvano standing out, but it might be another Ralph Beckett runner who has the edge.
LORD MELBOURNE emerges near the top of the pile, especially with Jack Doughty’s 5lb claim, which could be decisive in a race where fine margins matter.
