The Melbourne Cup is here again, a time when casual punters take a chance on wild omen bets while most watch their office sweep tickets go up in flames, swearing the whole thing’s rigged. But let’s give you a head start.
Picking a winner in this race is no easy feat:
24 horses, mixed form lines from around the globe, handicap conditions, and a challenging two-mile distance that many in the field haven’t even attempted, let alone conquered.
For those who don’t care about the form and just want an easy option, here are a few picks.
St George’s light grey coat will make him the easiest to spot, while the three female runners are Zardozi, Positivity, and The Map.
Four female jockeys are competing as well: Jamie Kah on Okita Soushi, Rachel King on The Map, Winona Costin on Positivity, and UK visitor Hollie Doyle on Sea King.
Irish heritage? Then you can confidently back the two runners from Ireland, Vauban and Absurde.
As for Kiwi supporters, they’ll need some luck to see Trust In You, Positivity, or Sharp’n’Smart place.
But if you’re one to dig into the form – or at least sound like you do – the analysis gets trickier.
Buckaroo will likely be the favorite. He came close two starts back on this track, narrowly missing out behind Via Sistina, who went on to dominate a high-class field in the Cox Plate.
Buckaroo then finished with an impressive second in the Caulfield Cup.
With trainer Chris Waller at the helm and the highly regarded jockey Joao Moreira up from barrier 21, he’s a strong contender, although Moreira will have a challenge in navigating from a wide draw.
The only horse with comparable form is Zardozi, trained by James Cummings, whose grandfather Bart holds a record 12 Melbourne Cup wins.
Zardozi put in an eye-catching finish just this past Saturday, making her the only horse this year to follow Bart’s classic strategy of running a Cup horse the weekend before.
With a strong record at Flemington, she’s a solid choice for those who believe in “horses for courses.”
Circle of Fire’s odds blew out after drawing the outside barrier, and his recent form has been unremarkable.
Yet he’s a proven stayer, having won the Sydney Cup this year, and is partnered with Mark Zahra, who has ridden the last two Melbourne Cup winners.
Trainer Ciaron Maher is also a master of preparing stayers.
Zahra’s skill is notable in a race where some lesser jockeys only got in because they can make the 50 kg weight.
Craig Williams, a top jockey coming off a win in The Everest, will be on UK raider Onesmoothoperator, who impressed in the Geelong Cup.
Irish trainer Willie Mullins, who coached Max Dynamite to two Melbourne Cup placings, returns with his favorites Vauban and Absurde.
Vauban was the hot tip last year, but the distance proved too much in the heat. This time, his trainer has him fresher, and with his proven stamina, he should be a contender down the final stretch.
Absurde, who led until the last furlong last year, is also stronger this time around.
Jamie Kah, Australia’s top female jockey, comes into the Cup riding Okita Soushi, a local hopeful.
Fresh off a Derby win on outsider Goldrush Guru, Kah has momentum and may earn the unofficial title of Australia’s leading female jockey if she secures a win.
Her horse Okita Soushi, while not Japanese, has a strong recent run where he defied expectations with a long charge to the finish.
Legendary trainer Gai Waterhouse, who has long held the title of “first lady of Australian racing,” is back with frontrunner Just Fine.
While inconsistent, if he’s on form, he could steal an early lead.
For those who value barrier draws, Athabascan has a favorable position at barrier two, ideal for a soft rails run, potentially conserving his energy for a late sprint.
A runner-by-runner breakdown follows to guide you through the field.
Picking a Cup winner is rarely straightforward; last year’s winner, Without a Fight, was the first in a decade to come in with single-figure odds.
But if pressed, my top pick would be Buckaroo, provided the odds are favorable.
With a wide barrier, his jockey will need to find a spot early without draining too much energy.
Since Buckaroo isn’t a true stayer, he’ll need to conserve energy and finish strong.
For those looking at quinellas, trifectas, or first fours – always a smart option given the high betting pools – I’d focus on six horses.
Alongside Buckaroo, I’d add Zardozi, who’s fit, consistent, and excels at Flemington. For value punters, Kovalica is a strong pick, quietly prepared to peak for this race.
Rounding out my top choices are Okita Soushi, Sea King, and Onesmoothoperator, each with recent form suggesting they’ll handle the distance well.
